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没什么比成为贵国的财政部长更伟大的荣誉了。但，这项工作的开始有好有坏。2013年5月21日，查提布巴斯里成为世界第四人口大国印度尼西亚的财政部长。而就在一天前，金融抛售开始了，即所谓的缩减恐慌。在时任美联储主席本伯南克谈到降低美联储的债券购买计划后，美国国债的收益率忽然上升。更高的美国国债收益率粉碎了新兴市场的吸引力，削弱了它们的货币、债券和股票。我几乎没时间调整，巴斯里在2016年指出。
Policymakers in emerging markets now fear a second such tantrum. As Treasury yields jumped at the end of last month, a broad index of emerging-market shares fell by over 7% in little more than a week. This is shaping up to be a bruiser, wrote Robin Brooks of the Institute of International Finance, a bankers' group, on Twitter. Markets have calmed down in recent days. But if they again lose their composure, which emerging economies will be worst hit and why
目前，新兴市场的政策拟定者担忧第三出现如此的恐慌。伴随上月底美国国债收益率的暴涨，新兴市场股票指数在一周多一点的时间里下跌了7%以上。国际金融协会的罗宾布鲁克斯在twitter上写道，这正在成为一个彪形大汉。近期几天市场已经平静下来。但假如它们第三失去冷静，什么新兴经济体将遭到最紧急的打击，为何？
One way to identify future casualties is to look at the characteristics of past victims. Back in 2013 Indonesia was one of an unfortunate group of emerging markets dubbed the fragile five by James Lord of Morgan Stanley, a bank. The group, which also included Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey, were all struggling with inflationary pressure, an overvalued exchange rate and a conspicuous current-account deficit . A few months into the tantrum Indonesia reported that its deficit had increased to 4.4% of GDP. The market went into shock, Mr Basri recalls.
确定将来受害者的一种办法是察看以往受害者的特点。早在2013年，摩根史坦利银行的詹姆斯劳德就将不幸的新兴经济体称为脆弱五国，而印尼就是其中之一。其它国家还包含巴西、印度、南非和土耳其，它们都在同通货膨胀重压、汇率高估和明显的常常账户赤字作斗争。在动荡的几个月后，印尼报告其赤字已经上升到GDP的4.4%。市场陷入了震动，巴斯里回忆道。
Similar factors were combined into a vulnerability index by the Fed's own economists in 2014. For the most part, the worse a country scored on the index, the more its currency fell in the taper tantrum. This kind of evidence has prompted Fed officials ever since to argue that the sensitivity of emerging markets to the Fed's words and deeds depends a lot on economic fundamentals in the emerging markets themselves.
美联储我们的经济学家在2014年将类似的原因组合成一个脆弱性指数。在大部分状况下，一个国家在该指数上的得分越低，其货币在缩减恐慌中下跌的就越多。这种证据促进美联储官员自那将来提出，新兴市场对美联储言行的敏锐性在非常大程度上取决于新兴市场自己的基本经济要点。
To the Fed's critics, that can sound like blaming the victim. But it is also a hopeful message. It implies that emerging markets have some control of their own fates. They are not purely passive objects of the effects of Fed policy decisions, as Mr Bernanke put it in 2015. Mr Basri has recounted the numerous measures he and other policymakers introduced to make Indonesia less fragile. They narrowed the country's current-account deficit by raising interest rates, tightening credit regulations and cutting fuel subsidies, despite the political damage that would ensue. Cabinet discussions were very dynamic, Mr Basri writes.
对美联储的批评者来讲，这听起来像是在指责受害者。但这也是一条充满期望的信息。这意味着新兴市场在一定量上控制着我们的命。它们并不是像伯南克在2015年所说的那样，是美联储政策决定影响的纯粹被动对象。巴斯里详述了他和其他政策拟定者为使印尼不那样脆弱而采取的海量手段。它们通过提升利率、收紧信贷管制和削减燃料补贴来缩小该国的常常账户赤字，尽管这将带来政治上的损害。巴斯里写道，内阁讨论很活跃。
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